“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

​9/18/2025

Live Cattle:

Boxes continue to soften. Basis to spring contract months of feeder cattle appear as very friendly towards cattle feeders.  Today, I made the recommendation for cattle feeders to own the feeder cattle $334.00 March calls and sell the $310.00 March puts for approximately $9.20.  This is a sales solicitation.  Cattle feeders would be expected to have abilities to procure inventory between $19.00 to $43.00 lower than current index price through this spread.  Although this wide basis is perceived as detrimental towards the backgrounder, it is of benefit to cattle feeders who wish to lock in the price for future procurement. 

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Feeder Cattle:

The same wide positive basis in the spring, that is beneficial to cattle feeders, is as detrimental to backgrounders who are currently bidding inventory higher to background through the fall and winter.  Producers at every level are going to have to assume more risk, simply due to how wide the basis spreads are and the lack of decrease in price of input costs. 

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​Corn:

Corn was a tad lower after new highs from contract low on Wednesday.  I am not bullish corn due to the size of the crop.  I am not bearish due to expectations of either a trade deal, or further government financial assistance.  I am bullish November of '26 beans and recommend ownership of, along with the $12.00 call options.  This is a sales solicitation. 

Energy:​

​Energy softened a little.  Crude has been down about $.50 for most of the day.  I anticipate energy prices to move higher with topping off farm tanks and booking fall harvest and transportation needs to be of benefit.  

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Bonds:

Bonds were a little lower.  With not much more to anticipate until the next FOMC meeting, any higher will suggest the economy is weakening further, and any lower would suggest inflation is on the rise.  Both of which Powell stated were the crux of the economy. ​​​​

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 “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.